The Super El Niño Artifact

First off, this post is going to be very complicated and it deals with computer modeling namely to do with GCM’s (Global Climate Models) and how they get simple things incorrect due to too much usage of “fudge factors.”

Fudge factors despite their name at a basic level are used often in more complex models.  The reason is that there is an unknown variable for instance that influences the behavior of the system in known ways, and the best way to predict or otherwise explain this variable is through the creation of a fudge factor which explains the behavior of this variable and for all intensive purposes could be 10 or more variables.  The explanation here is that you want the models to match reality and in order to do that, its often required to do this.

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